Date of Award


Degree Name

Doctor of Education


Educational Leadership

First Advisor

Dr. Richard E. Munsterman

Second Advisor

Dr. Leroy Ray

Third Advisor

Dr. Carol Sheffer

Fourth Advisor

Dr. Charles Warfield


The purpose of this study was to identify possible futures of Black colleges, public and private. The study addressed four questions: (1) Within the next 10 years, are the events concerning structure and administration of Black colleges likely to occur? (2) Within the next 10 years, are the events concerning programming at Black colleges likely to occur? (3) What will be the funding profile of Black colleges over the next decade? (4) What will be the impact of the events describing structure, administration, and programming at Black colleges? The Delphi technique was thought to be the most appropriate method to determine expert judgment and consensus with respect to the afore stated research questions. Consensus was defined as 70% of the panelists responding within a 20-point spread.

A 13-member panel, composed of Black college presidents and a vice-president, a U.S. Department of Education official, faculty members, a professional consultant on Black higher education, and representatives from the Rockefeller Foundation and the Lily Endowment, assigned individual probabilities to change items, listed under the topics "Structure and Administration" and "Programming," and assigned what each expected to be the percentage of support from predetermined sources on the questionnaire to Black colleges. They then assessed the impact (effect) that the consensus items would have on Black colleges.

Based on the panel's assigned probabilities, the described events concerning structure, administration, and programming were not likely to become the future of Black colleges. With respect to programming, the panel expected the impact to be favorable. However, the panel expected half of the consensus items related to structure and administration to have favorable impact and the other half to have unfavorable impact. The panel expected in the future that public Black colleges' primary source of support would be state tax funds and private Black colleges' primary source of support would be fees and tuition.

The results of this study should be used by Black educators and other decision makers as they plan for a stronger Black college of the future.

Access Setting

Dissertation-Open Access