Document Type


Presentation Date





Nanjing, the capital of China's Jiangsu Province, has grown rapidly during the post-reform era and the pace of change placed tremendous pressure on the city's arable land resources. This case study of land use/land cover change (LUC) in Nanjing's Jiangning district assesses changes in agricultural land, production, and labor within the ten 2016-era jiedao (sub-district political units) of Jiangning from 2000 to 2015. This case study provides an opportunity to assess an important component of the Ginsburg-McGee desakota hypothesis that predicts that Asian extended metropolis regions, unlike similar large cities in Western nations, will consistently maintain agricultural land and labor supplies within metropolitan boundaries. The study is based on two visits combined with time-series LUC analyses of a GIS database joining archived agricultural and agro-economic data with additional LUC data layers derived from satellite imagery including Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. Results show Jiangning continues to retain high, if decreasing, proportions of agricultural land and employment. Jiedao in closest proximity to Nanjing's central business districts lost arable land at greater rates than those in the periphery. OLS linear multiple regression analyses identified factors that are the most effective predictors of arable land persistence including lower mean annual income, higher percentages of men in the workforce, a reliance on traditional double-cropped rice-wheat, and (inversely) to vegetables.

Included in

Geography Commons