Date of Defense


Date of Graduation




First Advisor

Jessica Birnbaum

Second Advisor

Stephanie Ward

Third Advisor

Zachary Puchacz


airport planning, demand forecasting, critical aircraft, time-series analysis, market-share analysis, socio-economic analysis


The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically altered the aviation industry and the nature of how airports predict their future use. This paper conducts a new analysis of the various prediction methods regarding airport demand forecasting using the commercial service airports serving Southwest Michigan. Primarily, the methods researched include time-series analysis using regressions, market-share analysis, and an examination of socio-economic factors. While no one method prevails over the other, the market-share analysis has proven to be the most realistic predictor in three of the four airports analyzed, with time-series analysis predicting the other. A thorough analysis of these forecasting methods can help airports determine a practical use scenario, leading to timely infrastructure and development investments.

Access Setting

Honors Thesis-Open Access

Thesis Presentation- Matthew Wietstock.pdf (2486 kB)
Defense Presentation