Date of Defense

4-17-2025

Date of Graduation

4-2025

Department

Finance and Commercial Law

First Advisor

Wenling Lu

Second Advisor

Onur Arugaslan

Third Advisor

Bolo Enkhtaivan

Abstract

This paper examines the role of stress testing as a crucial tool for assessing systemic risk in the financial system, particularly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The global financial crisis, which unfolded between 2007 and 2009, exposed significant vulnerabilities within financial institutions and highlighted the inadequacies of existing risk management frameworks. In response, regulators and financial institutions increasingly turned to stress testing to evaluate the resilience of financial systems against economic shocks.

The paper will begin by defining systemic risk and the importance of effective risk assessment strategies. The paper will outline how stress testing can simulate adverse economic conditions, allowing institutions to assess their capital adequacy and risk exposure under various hypothetical scenarios. The analysis includes a review of the strategies employed in stress testing, highlighting their evolution and the lessons learned from the global financial crisis.

One of the key lessons identified is the need for comprehensive and forward-looking stress scenarios that incorporate a range of potential economic downturns, including those that are extremely unlikely but super impactful. The paper also discusses the importance of collaboration between regulatory bodies and financial institutions to ensure that stress testing exercises are robust, transparent, and reflective of real-world risks.

Additionally, the paper addresses the limitations of stress testing, acknowledging that while it is a valuable tool, it cannot eliminate systemic risk entirely. It emphasizes the necessity for ongoing improvements in data collection, scenario design, and the integration of stress testing into broader risk management practices. The findings suggest that effective stress testing should be part of a larger framework that includes continuous monitoring and adaptation to emerging risks.

In conclusion, the paper advocates for a more systematic approach to stress testing that incorporates the lessons learned from the global financial crisis. It suggests that by enhancing the robustness of stress testing frameworks, regulators and financial institutions can better anticipate and mitigate systemic risks, ultimately contributing to the stability of the financial system.

Access Setting

Honors Thesis-Open Access

Presentation.pdf (490 kB)
Defense Presentation

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