Socio-economic Impacts of Natural and Political Shocks

Date of Award

8-2025

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Christine Moser, Ph.D.

Second Advisor

Susan Pozo, Ph.D.

Third Advisor

Paul Clements, Ph.D.

Keywords

Climate change, education, forced migration, gender disparities, health, mental health

Abstract

This dissertation explores the socio-economic consequences of large-scale natural and political shocks, focusing on vulnerable communities affected by climate disasters in Pakistan and forced migration from Afghanistan. Each chapter uses primary data, and an empirical strategy suited to the context, examining outcomes related to child nutrition, education, and mental health. Insights from these studies contribute to a better understanding of how sudden disruptions can intensify existing inequalities and highlight areas where policy can support recovery and resilience.

The first chapter examines the impacts of the 2022 floods in Pakistan by comparing households in affected areas to similar unaffected households. Pakistan experienced one of the worst floods in its history in 2022, affecting around 15 percent of its population. However, measuring the impact of floods is hard because flood-prone areas and their residents cannot be directly compared to unaffected areas. This study uses an identification strategy that takes advantage of the unprecedented nature of these floods, enabling a comparison of areas hit by floods but not historically considered flood-prone with nearby unaffected zones. Using primary data from rural Charsadda, a district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, this research provides evidence that the floods negatively impacted child stunting and underweight rates, with a more pronounced increase in stunting among girls than boys. Food insecurity also increased by 15 percentage points in flood-affected villages. These findings highlight the urgency for proactive policy to recover children’s health and nutritional condition in flood-affected rural areas.

The second chapter analyses the impact of the 2022 floods on school enrollment in the same rural households in Charsadda, Pakistan. This research estimates the causal effect of flood exposure by comparing flood-affected and unaffected villages that share sociocultural characteristics, using primary data from 410 rural households. Flood exposure reduced enrollment by 20 percentage points overall, with girls facing an additional 13 percentage point decline. Girls are more affected at primary levels and boys at secondary levels. This study contributes to the literature by exploring the heterogeneous effects of climate shocks on education across gender and age, showing that floods worsen pre-existing inequalities in a highly vulnerable rural community. These findings demonstrate the economic and social costs of climate shocks in rural Pakistan and the need for targeted interventions to mitigate educational losses.

The third chapter utilizes a quasi-natural experiment from the 2021 U.S. evacuation of Afghan nationals to investigate the impact of family presence on the mental health of Afghans resettled in West Michigan. Employing a culturally validated instrument and exploratory factor analysis, this examination identifies two key dimensions of distress: Trauma-Related Stress, marked by symptoms like overthinking and nightmares, and Depressive Emotional Distress, characterized by sadness and social isolation. This study finds a higher distress and greater Trauma-Related Stress among migrants resettled without family, highlighting the protective role of family. These findings underscore the critical importance of family support in mitigating distress, potentially lowering the need for intensive mental health interventions and supporting economic and social integration. While focused on the specific case of Afghans resettled in the US, the results suggest broader applicability to other forcibly displaced populations from conflict zones, informing targeted policy interventions to enhance migrants' well-being.

Access Setting

Dissertation-Abstract Only

Restricted to Campus until

8-1-2035

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