Integrated Studies for a Better Understanding of the Nature of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Nile Basin and Its Optimum Utilization in Egypt

Date of Award

12-2025

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Department

Geological and Environmental Sciences

First Advisor

Mohamed Sultan Ph.D.

Second Advisor

Peter Voice Ph.D.

Third Advisor

Adam Milewski Ph.D.

Keywords

Climate change, extreme precipitation, flood risk, nile river basin, swat modeling, water resources management

Abstract

Extreme precipitation and flooding events are rising globally, necessitating a thorough understanding and sustainable management of water resources. One such setting is the Nile River's source areas, where high precipitation has led to the filling of Lake Nasser (LN) twice (1998-2003; 2019-2022) in the last two decades and the diversion of overflow to depressions west of the Nile, where it is lost mainly to evaporation. Using temporal satellite-based data, climate models, and continuous rainfall-runoff models, I identified the primary contributor to increased runoff that reached Lake Nasser in the past two decades and assessed the impact of climate change on the Lake Nasser’s runoff throughout the 21st century. Findings include: (1) the Blue Nile subbasin (BNS) is the primary contributor to increased downstream runoff, (2) the Blue Nile subbasin runoff was simulated in the 21st century using a calibrated (1965-1992) rainfall-runoff model with global circulation models (GCMs), CCSM4, HadGEM3, and GFDL-CM4.0, projections as model inputs, (3) the extreme value analysis for projected runoff driven by GCMs’ output indicates extreme floods are more severe in the 21st century, (4) one adaptation for the projected 21st century increase in precipitation (25%-39%) and flood (2%-20%) extremes is to recharge Egypt’s fossil aquifers during high flood years.

Access Setting

Dissertation-Abstract Only

Restricted to Campus until

12-1-2035

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