Date of Defense
4-23-2026
Date of Graduation
5-2026
Department
Aviation
First Advisor
Susan Pozo
Second Advisor
Jessica Birnbaum
Abstract
This thesis examines whether major U.S. aviation and border security policies had a measurable effect on international air passenger volumes between the United States and seventeen partner countries from 2000 to 2024. As one of the world's largest aviation markets, the United States has enacted a series of significant policy changes over this period, from the post-September 11 security legislation through the COVID-19 travel restrictions, each with the potential to alter the volume of passengers traveling across its borders. Understanding the demand effects of these policies carries practical implications for airlines, airports, and policymakers alike.
The analysis employs a gravity model framework, which predicts bilateral passenger flows based on the economic size and geographic characteristics of country pairs. Two regression specifications are estimated using Stata statistical software. The first is an OLS time-series regression that collapses the data into 25 annual observations to examine broad national trends over time. The second is a panel fixed-effects regression using all 425 country-year observations, which controls for time-invariant bilateral characteristics and isolates within-country policy effects more precisely. Eleven U.S. policies are coded as binary indicator variables, and GDP per capita and combined real GDP serve as the primary economic controls.
The results indicate that only two policies produced statistically significant effects on passenger volumes. The COVID-19 travel bans of 2020 were associated with an approximately 93 percent reduction in aggregate passenger volumes in the OLS model, representing the largest policy-driven demand shock in the dataset. In the panel model, this disruption is captured through the 2020 year fixed effect rather than the travel ban variable directly, as the restrictions affected all countries simultaneously. The Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative, which introduced a passport requirement for travelers from Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean beginning in 2007, was associated with a roughly 34 percent reduction in bilateral passenger volumes in the panel model, the only security policy to show a statistically significant effect in that specification.
The remaining post-9/11 security legislation examined, including ATSA, HSA, EBSVERA, REAL ID, and Secure Flight, did not produce statistically significant effects on passenger volumes in either model. GDP per capita was the most consistent predictor of passenger growth across both specifications, confirming the gravity model expectation that rising incomes drive international air travel demand. The findings suggest that policies imposing concrete, unavoidable barriers to travel produce detectable demand effects, while those adding incremental friction are absorbed by a growing market without measurable consequence.
Recommended Citation
Tamez, Dominik, "International Travel Effects from United States Aviation Policies" (2026). Honors Theses. 4060.
https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/honors_theses/4060
Access Setting
Honors Thesis-Restricted
Restricted to Campus until
12-9-2026